Please enable JavaScript for full functionality.

News Releases

Barclays Capital Investor Survey finds: Fed funds rate will end 2007 at 5.25 percent

01 Feb 2007

NEW YORK (Feb. 1) – Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays PLC, hosted over 170 institutional investors, pension-plan sponsors, academics and consultants involved in the global inflation-linked markets at its Eleventh Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference in Key Biscayne, FL, Jan 28-30.

This year’s conference focused on key themes at the nexus of global development and inflation markets and explored how market participants can use inflation products to respond to global challenges.  The conference agenda covered inflation’s influence on monetary policy, behavioral finance, emerging markets and risk premia.

The conference had several keynote speakers including:

  • Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group
  • Steve Kandarian, Chief Investment Officer, MetLife
  • Dr. William White, Head of Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank for International Settlements
  • Dr. Laurence Meyer, former member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • Dr. Yutaka Yamaguchi, former Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan
  • Dr. Stephen Nickell, former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
  • Dr. Andrew Lo, Professor of Finance, MIT Sloan School of Management
  • There were also senior debt management officials from Brazil , France , Italy , Korea , Turkey , United Kingdom and United States.

Barclays Capital announced the results of a survey of the institutional investors and issuers who attended its conference.

Highlights of the survey include:

Commodities

  • 71% of respondents said the recent volatility in commodity prices had not changed their view on allocating money to TIPS.

Federal Funds Rate

  • Close to half of the survey respondents (43%) said they expected the Fed funds rate would end 2007 at 5.25%
  • A third of respondents (33%) said the Fed funds rate would end this year between 4.75% and 5.25%.

Core CPI

  • About half of respondents, (49%) said core CPI for 2007 would be between 2% and 2.5%
  • About a third of respondents said core CPI for 2007 would be between 2.5% and 3%
  • Most of the remaining respondents said core CPI would rise between 1.5% and 2% in 2007.

Emerging Markets

  • 89% of respondents said they would consider emerging markets inflation-linked products as an alternative source of return for their portfolio
  • 75% of respondents saw potential in Brazil 
  • In looking at the rest of the world, about a third of respondents were interested in Turkey and a quarter of respondents were interested in South Africa.

About Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital is the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC which has an AA long-term credit rating and a balance sheet of over £986 billion (US$1.8 trillion*). With a distinctive business model, Barclays Capital provides large corporate, government and institutional clients with solutions to their financing and risk management needs.  Barclays Capital has offices in 26 countries, employs over 10,500 people and has the global reach and distribution power to meet the needs of issuers and investors worldwide. For further information about Barclays Capital, please visit our website www.barclayscapital.com.

*US $ figure was derived using the US $/£ exchange rate at June 30, 2006 of US$1.85/£1

Inflation-linked

Barclays Capital is a global leader in the inflation-linked asset class. It runs the largest inflation-linked bond franchise, with significant resources dedicated to origination, trading and research. Barclays Capital is a major innovator in this sector. It was a joint book runner on the first government bond linked to European inflation, it developed the strips product stripping US TIPS for the first time, created the first global inflation-linked bond index, and continues to offer web-based inflation-linked analytics for clients.

The firm is committed to providing transparency and liquidity to the market. It has encouraged other dealers to get involved in this market and offers Bloomberg-based trading and pricing of inflation products to its clients.

Risk Magazine awarded Barclays Capital Inflation Derivatives House of the Year 2007. This is the second year in a row that the firm has been received this recognition.

Barclays Capital has raised awareness of the asset class globally through conference appearances and comprehensive research. The firm hosts several inflation-linked conferences a year to educate issuers and investors on the asset class. The next inflation-linked conferences will be held in Seoul on February 20 and Sydney on February 22, 2007.

Related Links