News Releases

A turn in emerging Asia economies signals start of global bottoming and recovery

NEW YORK (March 25, 2009) - Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC, today said in its latest flagship quarterly research publication, "Global Outlook: Green Shoots Have Arrived,” that the foundations of a bottom in the global business cycle appear to be in place, suggesting a turn for the better in economic news over the next 3-6 months. As a result, Barclays Capital recommends investors position themselves more aggressively in select regions and asset classes.

“We believe that the recent rally in financial markets signifies an inflection point,” said Larry Kantor, Head of Research at Barclays Capital. “Expectations have been driven down to extremes, and the beginnings of a global economic recovery are evident. As a result, we are recommending that investors become more aggressive and take risk over a broader range of assets.”

Major themes of Barclays Capital’s Economic and Financial Market Outlook include:

• Recovery is underway in emerging Asia, signalling the start of a 6-9 month period during which most economies around the world bottom and begin to recover.
• After emerging Asia, the US should be watched as the next region for a recovery. With the downturn of the last 6-9 months, manufacturing output is well below demand, which could lead to a quick reversal.
• Recommending overweight investment grade credit, with a focus on bank debt, which is trading at an all-time high premium over non-financial debt.
• Recommending some exposure to equities in pro-cyclical sectors such as industrials, energy and materials. In financials, preferred debt is still recommended over equities.
• Recommending exposure to cyclical currencies such as the Australian dollar as rallies in the dollar and yen end.

The Global Outlook research publication, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and outlines the likely implications for global financial markets, including commodities, credit, economics, emerging markets, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.

About Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital is the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC. With a distinctive business model, Barclays Capital provides large corporate, government and institutional clients with a full spectrum of solutions to their strategic advisory, financing and risk management needs. Barclays Capital has offices around the world, employs 20,000 people and has the global reach, advisory services and distribution power to meet the needs of issuers and investors worldwide.
For further information about Barclays Capital, please visit our website www.barclayscapital.com.

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Contact: 

Catherine Malloy
+44 20 777 38939
catherine.malloy@barclayscapital.com

Seth Martin
+1 212 412-7565
seth.martin@barclayscapital.com